Does the state of emergency create an opportunity for democratic erosion? Lessons from post-communist Central and Southeast Europe

Abstract

The paper’s key puzzle is the variation in lockdown‑related democratic de‑cline in the region of Central and Southeast Europe given the incumbents’ ideologicaland regime (dis)similarity. Why did similar regimes not respond to the pandemic in thesame manner by using the opportunity to grab more executive power and diminish theauthority of other institutions? While some argue that a state of emergency providesan ideal opportunity for democratic decline due to reduced costs, others believe thatautocratic regimes with a ‘pre‑existing condition for autocracy’ are more vulnerable. Tocontribute to this discussion, I examine three examples from post‑communist Central andSoutheast Europe (Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia) during the pandemic‑related state ofemergency and lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. I consider several relevant factors, the mostimportant of which is the prospect of winning the next election. To erode democracy,autocratic incumbents must feel insecure about the outcome of the next election touse the opportunity created by the state of emergency. If they are uncertain of victory,they may prefer to expand their executive powers during the state of emergency, thusundermining democracy.