Structure and predictors of party evaluations during the 2022 elections in Serbia

Abstract

Cilj istraživanja bio je da se ispita latentna struktura evaluacija političkih stranaka za vreme izbora 2022. godine u Srbiji, kao i da se testira skup socio-demografskih (pol, starost, obrazovanje, životni standard), dispozicionih (politički stavovi, autoritarnost i religioznost) i kontekstualnih prediktora (informisanje posredstvom različitih televizija) ekstrahovanih dimenzija. U studiji sprovedenoj u nedelji uoči izbora na prigodnom uzorku od 636 punoletnih građana i građanki utvrđeno je da se simpatije prema strankama koje su učestvovale na parlamentarnim izborima organizuju u tri međusobno nezavisna faktora: 1) stranke režima (SNS, SPS, SRS), 2) stranke građanske opozicije (PSG, SSP, NDBGD, NS, DS, Ekološki ustanak, SDS) i 3) stranke nacionalne opozicije (Dveri, Suverenisti, DSS, Zavetnici). Regresione analize pokazale su da se evaluacije tri navedena stranačka bloka najbolje mogu predviđati na osnovu praćenja različitih televizija. Simpatije prema strankama režima najbolje predviđa praćenje televizije PINK i nisko interesovanje za politiku. Simpatije prema strankama građanske opozicije jedine se mogu predviđati pomoću dispozicionih faktora (stavovi i autoritarnost), pored praćenja televizije N1. Prediktivna moć svih navedenih prediktora bila je slabija u modelovanju simpatija prema strankama nacionalne opozicije, gde samo mlađe životno doba i praćenje TV RTS objašnjavaju skroman procenat razlika u stranačkim evaluacijama. Rezultati pokazuju da stranački rascep u Srbiji nije ideološke prirode, kao i da je u značajnoj meri proizvod socijalnog uticaja posredovanog medijima.

The goal of the research was to examine the latent structure of evaluations of political parties during the 2022 elections in Serbia, as well as to test a set of socio-demographic (gender, age, education, standard of living), dispositional (political attitudes, authoritarianism and religiosity) and contextual predictors (information through different televisions) of extracted dimensions. In a study conducted in the week before the elections on a random sample of 636 adult citizens, it was determined that sympathy for the parties that participated in the parliamentary elections is organized into three mutually independent factors: 1) parties of the regime (SNS, SPS, SRS), 2) civil opposition parties (PSG, SSP, NDBGD, NS, DS, Ekološki ustanak, SDS) and 3) national opposition parties (Dveri, Suverenisti, DSS, Zavetnici). Regression analyses showed that the evaluations of the three mentioned party blocs can best be predicted based on the monitoring of different television channels. Sympathy for the regime’s parties is best predicted by watching PINK TV and low interest in politics. Sympathies towards civil opposition parties can only be predicted using dispositional factors (attitudes and authoritarianism), in addition to watching N1 television. The predictive power of all the mentioned predictors was weaker in the modeling of sympathies towards the parties of the national opposition, where only younger age and watching TV RTS explain a modest percentage of differences in party evaluations. The results show that the party split in Serbia is not of an ideological nature, and that it is to a significant extent the product of social influence realized through media.