Anksioznost u doba izbora: Izborno ponašanje glasača u kontekstu Rusko-ukrajinskog rata

Abstract

Predizborna kampanja uoči izbora 3. aprila 2022. godine odvijala se u specifičnim uslovima. Svega devet dana nakon što je 15. februara 2022. godine predsednik Republike Srbije, Aleksandar Vučić, raspisao prevremene parlamentarne izbore, Ruska federacija izvršila je invaziju na Ukrajinu. Rat koji je trajao je tokom čitave predizborne kampanje, kreirao je specifičan komunikacioni izazov za političke stranke. Osim toga, rat je uticao i na glasače, pobuđujući anksioznost usled eventualnog prelivanja negativnih posledica rata (bezbednosnih, ekonomskih, političkih, emotivnih) na Srbiju. U ovom radu upravo analiziramo uticaj ratom indukovane anksioznosti na izborno ponašanje glasača. Kvantitativni istraživački dizajn podrazumevao je analizu istraživanja javnog mnjenja sprovedenog neposredno nakon održanih izbora. Upitnik postizborne sondaže bio je fokusiran na proveru dve hipoteze o uticaj anksioznosti na izborno ponašanje: (1) preusmeravanje pažnje glasača sa unutarpolitičkih na spoljnopolitičke teme; (2) promenu preferencija glasača kada je u pitanju donošenje odluke za koga će glasati na izborima.

The campaign for the 2022 elections in Serbia took place under specific circumstances. Just nine days after the President of the Republic of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić announced parliamentary elections on February 15, 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. The war created a specific communication challenge for political parties. In addition, the war also affected the voters, causing anxiety due to the possibility of a spillover of negative consequences of the war (security, economic, political, and emotional) to Serbia. In this paper, we analyze the impact of war-induced anxiety on the electoral behavior of voters. The quantitative research design involved the analysis of a public opinion survey conducted immediately after the elections. The post-election survey questionnaire was focused on testing two hypotheses about the impact of anxiety on voting behavior: (1) redirecting voters’ attention from domestic to foreign political topics; (2) a change in voter preferences when it comes to deciding who to vote for in elections. The theoretical foundation of this paper is a cognitive approach to emotions. The descriptive and inferential findings of our study indicate that anxiety related to the Russian-Ukrainian war was a significant factor in voting behavior in the 2022 parliamentary elections in Serbia. Regardless of party affiliation, it was empirically confirmed for the first time in the Serbian local context that anxiety induced by crisis situations increases voters’ interest in relevant political information, increases the probability of changing voting preferences, and promotes involvement in the electoral process (turnout), as well as gathering around political options that guarantee stability or offer protective security policies (parties that were in power until the election and right-wing parties). However, these effects were not left to the spontaneity of political-psychological processes but were also successfully instrumentalized by the Serbian Progressive Party. Simultaneously increasing the anxiety of the voters and offering messages of reassurance, this party managed to divert the attention of the voters from other relevant issues and to keep its former voters together. The findings of this analysis contribute to the open debates in the field of Elections and Voting Behavior, as well as in the field of Foreign Policy Analysis.