Migrations as reason for the political anomalies in Europe

Abstract

In this paper, author explores the reasons for modern massive migrations from the Middle East and Africa to Europe, and determines that main causes of migrations are: demographic explosion in some parts of the world, wars and possibility of social engineering. Based on content analysis of recent documentation, author establishes that on one hand there are unstoppable birth rates in Africa and in the Middle East, which are at the same time the poorest and the most turbulent areas of the world. At the same time, birth rates and population in Europe - the wealthiest and best governed continent, are in decline. Migrations are very encouraged by the fact that Africa, the Middle East and Europe share an extremely long continental and sea border. Most migrants come from the Middle East because wars are more important reason for migrations than demographic explosions, and in the Middle East there is still unfinished Arabian Spring, and, even worse, the number of wars and terrorist organizations in the same area is increasing. Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are, practically, a single battlefield. Regarding artificial induction of the migrations, author asserts that it is a long known phenomenon. Today, it is a subversive method, mastered not only by the big, but also by many of the smaller military-intelligence systems, but its dimensions should not be overestimated. Paper also finds a number of political and other anomalies that have arisen in many EU countries. It analyzes late reaction of the EU institutions to challenges posed by migrations. Special attention is paid to those dimensions of the migrations that turn them into security challenge. Possible positive effects of the migrations are also analyzed. Paper focuses on relation of migrations and national interest of Serbia. Author determines that migrations are, to some extent, security challenge for Serbia, not only in terms of increased danger of terrorism, but also because of possible outbreak of regional conflicts. Also, Serbia, due to its relative economic underdevelopment and high unemployment does not have economic or, in general, national interest in keeping a certain number of migrants on its soil. In the authors opinion, the irregular migrations from the Middle East and Africa to Europe will continue in the distant future.

Predmet analize u ovom radu su raznovrsne političke i druge anomalije koje su izazvane aktuelnim masovnim migracijama prema Evropi. Cilj rada je da se ispita osnovanost pretpostavki o pojavi velikog broja političkih i drugih anomalija u političkoj praksi više zemalja Evropske unije, kao neadekvatne reakcije na migracionu krizu. Analizom sadržaja i uporedno-istorijskim metodom u radu se utvrđuje čitav niz ozbiljnih anomalija koje su se povodom migracija pojavile u mnogim zemljama EU, analizira se zakasnela reakcija institucija EU na izazove koje su migracije donele sa sobom, a naročita pažnja se obraća na one dimenzije migracija koje ih pretvaraju u bezbednosni izazov. Autor takođe analizira i moguće pozitivne ekonomske efekte migracija i utvrđuje moguće korisnike takvih efekata. Autor zaključuje da su migracije bezbednosni izazov i za Srbiju, i to ne samo u pogledu uvećanja opasnosti od terorizma, nego i zbog mogućnosti izbijanja regionalnih konflikata, i da bi najveća od svih anomalija bila ta da najsiromašnije zemlje Evrope, u koje spada i Srbija, snose najveći teret migracija, kao što je za sada slučaj. Rad se završava zaključkom o anomalijama koje su nastale u evropskoj praksi kao izrazu nesnalaženja i nedovoljne funkcionalnosti nekih zemalja članica, kao i o verovatnoći ponavljanja migracija u skoroj budućnosti, i njihovoj verovatnoj masovnosti i intenzitetu, do čega se došlo korišćenjem adekvatnih statističkih metoda, na osnovu uvida u recentnu građu o žarištima demografskih eksplozija i ratova na Bliskom istoku i u Africi, kao i o razlozima njihovog trajanja.