Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia
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2019
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Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milosevic (2000) and Boris Tadic (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the applicatio...n of prospect theory in political science. (C) 2019 The Regents of the University of California.
Ključne reči:
Prospect theory / Loss aversion / Risky choice / Incumbent president / Early elections / Presidential decision-makingIzvor:
Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 2019, 52, 1, 11-24Izdavač:
- Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford
DOI: 10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002
ISSN: 0967-067X
WoS: 000465060900002
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85060083441
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Institucija/grupa
FPNTY - JOUR AU - Pavlović, Dušan PY - 2019 UR - http://rfpn.fpn.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/712 AB - Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milosevic (2000) and Boris Tadic (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science. (C) 2019 The Regents of the University of California. PB - Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford T2 - Communist and Post-Communist Studies T1 - Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia EP - 24 IS - 1 SP - 11 VL - 52 DO - 10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002 ER -
@article{ author = "Pavlović, Dušan", year = "2019", abstract = "Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milosevic (2000) and Boris Tadic (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science. (C) 2019 The Regents of the University of California.", publisher = "Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford", journal = "Communist and Post-Communist Studies", title = "Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia", pages = "24-11", number = "1", volume = "52", doi = "10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002" }
Pavlović, D.. (2019). Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia. in Communist and Post-Communist Studies Elsevier Sci Ltd, Oxford., 52(1), 11-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002
Pavlović D. Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia. in Communist and Post-Communist Studies. 2019;52(1):11-24. doi:10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002 .
Pavlović, Dušan, "Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia" in Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 52, no. 1 (2019):11-24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2019.01.002 . .