Continuity and changes in the us foreign policy towards the Western Balkans during the first year of Biden’s presidency: third Obama’s or second Trump’s term?

Abstract

Many analysts expected a radical change in President Joseph Biden’s foreign policy compared to the foreign policy of previous President Donald Trump. A year after his electoral victory, opinions about how much Biden actually changed in the US foreign policy vary from those who see it as a revolutionary change to those who perceive it as a difference only in tone and continuity in the majority of crucial policy aspects. This paper aims to contribute to this debate by addressing the issues of continuity and changes in the new administration foreign policy towards the Western Balkans. Although many expected that Biden’s policy to the region would be much more similar to President Barrack Obama’s or even President Bill Clinton’s approach, this paper claims that the new administration has a lot in common with the course of the previous President Donald Trump. There are also some changes and modifications, but they seem to be less crucial than the elements of continuity that exist between Biden’s and Trump’s administrations’ foreign policy towards this region. The paper also addresses the causes of this continuity and claims that the main reason for that are structural factors on the level of the international system. However, some reasons for the continuity are also on the state (internal) and individual levels of analysis.

Mnogi analitičari očekivali su radikalnu promenu u spolj- noj politici predsednika Džozefa Bajdena, posebno u poređenju sa prethodnim predsednikom Donaldom Trampom. Godinu dana nakon izborne pobede, mišljenja o tome koliko je Bajden zaista prome- nio spoljnu politiku SAD su podeljena i variraju od onih koji vide revolucionarnu promenu do onih koji vide samo razliku u tonu u većini ključnih aspekata. Ovaj rad nastoji da doprinese debati kroz analizu kontinuiteta i promene u spoljnoj politi- ci nove administracije prema regionu Zapadnog Balkana. Iako su mnogi očekivali da Bajdenova politika bude sličnija pristupima predsednika Baraka Obame ili čak Bila Klintona, ovaj rad argu- mentuje da nova administracija zadržava značajan deo zajedničkog kursa sa Trampovom. Međutim, primetne su i određene promene i modifikacije, ali čini se da one nisu važnije od elemenata kontinuiteta koji postoje između odnosa dve administracije pre- ma regionu. Rad se takođe obraća uzrocima ovakvog kontinuiteta i tvrdi da glavni razlog za to leži u strukturalnim faktorima na nivou međunarodnog sistema. Ostali razlozi se mogu naći na državnom (unutrašnjem nivou), kao i na individualnom nivou analize